Retrospective study of comparison of clinical severity and outcome of hospitalised COVID-19 patients during the first and second waves of the pandemic in India.

OBJECTIVES: To compare the clinical severity and outcome of hospitalised patients during the two waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in India. SETTING: A tertiary care referral hospital in South India. PARTICIPANTS: Symptomatic SARS CoV-2 reverse transcriptase PCR positive patients presenting to the emergency department during the two waves were recruited. The first wave spanned between April and December 2020 and the second wave between April and May 2021. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome of interest was mortality. Secondary outcomes included illness severity at presentation, need for oxygen therapy, non-invasive ventilation (NIV) and hospital or intensive care unit admission. RESULTS: The mean (SD) age of the 4971 hospitalised patients in the first wave was similar to the 2293 patients in the second wave (52.5±15.4 vs 52.1±15.1 years, p=0.37). When compared with the first wave, during the second wave, a higher proportion of patients presented with critical illness (11% vs 1.1%, p<0.001) and needed supplemental oxygen therapy (n=2092: 42.1% vs n=1459: 63.6%; p<0.001), NIV (n=643; 12.9% vs n=709; 30.9%; p<0.001) or inotropes/vasoactive drugs (n=108; 2.2% vs n=77: 3.4%; p=0.004). Mortality was higher during the second wave (19.2% vs 9.3%; p<0.001). On multivariable regression analysis, age >60 years (risk ratio, RR 2.80; 95% CI 2.12 to 3.70), D-dimer >1000 ng/mL (RR 1.34; 95% CI 1.15 to 1.55), treatment with supplemental oxygen (RR 14.6; 95% CI 8.98 to 23.6) and presentation during the second wave (RR 1.40; 95% CI 1.21 to 1.62) were independently associated with mortality. CONCLUSION: The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in India appeared to be associated with more severe presentation and higher mortality when compared with the first wave. Increasing age, elevated D-dimer levels and treatment with supplemental oxygen were independent predictors of mortality.

Effectiveness of a monitored home isolation program for COVID-19 infection during the second wave of the pandemic.

Background: The rapidity of spread of COVID-19 infection during the second wave of the pandemic placed tremendous stress on healthcare resources. This study evaluated the effectiveness of a monitored home isolation (HI) program. Methods: In this descriptive longitudinal study, symptomatic patients were screened in the HI clinic and eligible patients were followed up at home using tele-consultation, until recovery or hospitalization. HI failure was defined as need for hospitalization. Factors associated with HI failure were assessed using logistic regression analysis and expressed as odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence interval (CI). Results: During April and May 2021, 1957 RT-PCR confirmed patients (984 male) with mean (SD) age 40 (13.5) years were enrolled; 93.3% (n = 1825) were successfully managed at home. Of the 132 patients (6.7%) who failed HI, 57 (43.2%) required oxygen therapy and 23 needed intensive care admissions. Overall mortality was 0.4% (7/1957). On adjusted analysis, factors associated with HI failure were age ≥60 years (OR 2.24; 95%CI 1.26-3.99), male gender (OR 2.26; 95%CI 1.44-3.57), subjective reporting of breathing difficulty (OR 3.64; 95%CI 2.08-6.37), history of cough (OR 2.08; 95%CI 1.37-3.17), and higher heart rate (OR 1.04; 95%CI 1.02-1.05). Although patient status (non-healthcare workers), no prior vaccination and ≥2 comorbidities were associated with HI failure on unadjusted analysis, these were non-significant on adjusted analysis. Conclusion: Monitored HI program can be used successfully during a pandemic wave to judicially use scare hospital resources. Older male patients presenting with breathlessness or cough may warrant closer monitoring.

Impact of prior vaccination with CovishieldTM and Covaxin® on mortality among symptomatic COVID-19 patients during the second wave of the pandemic in South India during April and May 2021: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 vaccines were authorised for emergency use to mitigate the impact of the pandemic. This study evaluated the effect of prior vaccination with either Oxford Astra Zeneca's Covishield™ or Bharath Biotech's Covaxin® on mortality among symptomatic COVID-19 patients during the second wave of the pandemic in India. METHODOLOGY: In this cohort study comprising of RT-PCR confirmed symptomatic COVID-19 patients presenting during April and May 2021, the effect of prior vaccination on mortality (primary outcome), need for hospitalization, oxygen therapy, non-invasive ventilation (NIV) and intensive care unit (ICU) admission were assessed and expressed as risk ratio (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: The mean (SD) age of the cohort (n = 4183) was 46.3 (15.5) years; 17.9% (748/4183) had received at least one dose of Covishield™ and 4.8% (201/4183) had received Covaxin®. Mortality was 0.2% (95% CI: 0.2% - 0.7%), 3.5% (1.9-5.2%), 6.2% (0.3-12%) and 12.9% (11.8-14.1%) among fully vaccinated (>2 weeks after two doses), partially vaccinated (>2 weeks after one dose or <2 weeks after two doses), indeterminate (<2 weeks after one dose) and unvaccinated patients respectively. The difference in mortality among unvaccinated vs. fully vaccinated was 12.7% (95% CI: 11.4-13.9%), unvaccinated vs. partially vaccinated was 9.4% (7.4-11.4%) and unvaccinated vs. indeterminate vaccinated was 6.8% (0.8-12.7%). On adjusted analysis, as compared to unvaccinated patients, at least one dose of vaccine reduced the need for hospitalization (RR: 0.40; 95% CI: 0.35-0.47), oxygen (0.33; 0.27-0.40), NIV (0.23; 0.17-0.32), ICU admission (0.18; 0.12-0.27) and mortality (0.18; 0.11-0.29). CONCLUSION: Among symptomatic COVID-19 patients, prior vaccination with Covishield ™ or Covaxin® impacted the severity of illness and reduced mortality during a period of widespread delta variant circulation. Full vaccination conferred greater protection than partial vaccination.

Noninvasive Ventilation in the Management of Respiratory Failure Due to COVID-19 Infection: Experience From a Resource-Limited Setting.

OBJECTIVE: To study the role of noninvasive ventilation (NIV) in Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome-Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV2) related acute respiratory failure (C-ARF). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients with C-ARF managed on NIV were categorized as NIV success or failure (death or intubation). Factors associated with failure were explored using regression analysis and expressed as odds ratio (OR) with 95% CI. RESULTS: Between April 1, 2020, and September 15, 2020, a total of 286 patients with a mean ± SD age of 53.1±11.6 years and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score of 11.1±5.5 were initiated on NIV. Of the 182 patients (63.6%) successfully managed on NIV alone, 118 had moderate or severe acute respiratory distress syndrome. When compared with NIV success, NIV failure was associated with lower admission PaO2 to fraction of inspired oxygen ratio (P<.001) and higher respiratory rate (P<.001). On penalized logistic regression analysis, NIV failure was associated with higher Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score (OR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.24), severe acute respiratory distress syndrome (OR, 3.99; 95% CI, 1.24 to 12.9), D-dimer level of 1000 ng/mL DDU (to convert to mg/L, divide by 1000) or greater (OR, 2.60; 95% CI, 1.16 to 5.87), need for inotropes or dialysis (OR, 12.7; 95% CI, 4.3 to 37.7), and nosocomial infections (OR, 13.6; 95% CI, 4.06 to 45.9). Overall mortality was 30.1% (86/286). In patients requiring intubation, time to intubation was longer in nonsurvivors than survivors (median, 5; interquartile range, 3-8 vs 3; interquartile range, 2-3 days; P<.001). CONCLUSION: Noninvasive ventilation can be used successfully in C-ARF. Illness severity and need for non-respiratory organ support predict NIV failure.

Factors associated with mortality among moderate and severe patients with COVID-19 in India: a secondary analysis of a randomised controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: Large data on the clinical characteristics and outcome of COVID-19 in the Indian population are scarce. We analysed the factors associated with mortality in a cohort of moderately and severely ill patients with COVID-19 enrolled in a randomised trial on convalescent plasma. DESIGN: Secondary analysis of data from a Phase II, Open Label, Randomized Controlled Trial to Assess the Safety and Efficacy of Convalescent Plasma to Limit COVID-19 Associated Complications in Moderate Disease. SETTING: 39 public and private hospitals across India during the study period from 22 April to 14 July 2020. PARTICIPANTS: Of the 464 patients recruited, two were lost to follow-up, nine withdrew consent and two patients did not receive the intervention after randomisation. The cohort of 451 participants with known outcome at 28 days was analysed. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE: Factors associated with all-cause mortality at 28 days after enrolment. RESULTS: The mean (SD) age was 51±12.4 years; 76.7% were males. Admission Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score was 2.4±1.1. Non-invasive ventilation, invasive ventilation and vasopressor therapy were required in 98.9%, 8.4% and 4.0%, respectively. The 28-day mortality was 14.4%. Median time from symptom onset to hospital admission was similar in survivors (4 days; IQR 3-7) and non-survivors (4 days; IQR 3-6). Patients with two or more comorbidities had 2.25 (95% CI 1.18 to 4.29, p=0.014) times risk of death. When compared with survivors, admission interleukin-6 levels were higher (p<0.001) in non-survivors and increased further on day 3. On multivariable Fine and Gray model, severity of illness (subdistribution HR 1.22, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.35, p<0.001), PaO2/FiO2 ratio <100 (3.47, 1.64-7.37, p=0.001), neutrophil lymphocyte ratio >10 (9.97, 3.65-27.13, p<0.001), D-dimer >1.0 mg/L (2.50, 1.14-5.48, p=0.022), ferritin ≥500 ng/mL (2.67, 1.44-4.96, p=0.002) and lactate dehydrogenase ≥450 IU/L (2.96, 1.60-5.45, p=0.001) were significantly associated with death. CONCLUSION: In this cohort of moderately and severely ill patients with COVID-19, severity of illness, underlying comorbidities and elevated levels of inflammatory markers were significantly associated with death. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: CTRI/2020/04/024775.